Description

This analysis provides a forecast of COMP5692 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-06-08 31.280103 33.586461 36.077145 38.984355 42.307447 46.015518 50.506388
2025-06-15 28.426593 31.641933 35.339906 39.974585 45.728622 52.783106 62.334017
2025-06-22 26.179227 29.790218 34.110184 39.782816 47.239012 57.034590 71.520867
2025-06-29 24.294642 28.080642 32.740054 39.073515 47.771831 59.853600 79.124522
2025-07-06 22.618557 26.444331 31.252560 37.961891 47.497615 61.353565 84.927248
2025-07-13 22.120961 26.231290 31.534463 39.186607 50.563841 68.147451 100.994621
2025-07-20 21.520247 25.819712 31.490029 39.910189 52.937870 74.250218 117.907464
2025-07-27 21.002273 25.468431 31.478629 40.647143 55.388450 80.922782 138.689662
2025-08-03 20.290982 24.803165 30.968489 40.570328 56.482751 85.363808 156.626011
2025-08-10 19.498141 23.978042 30.170439 39.969265 56.598345 87.941755 171.248323
2025-08-17 18.726815 23.142878 29.305127 39.185700 56.291757 89.601488 184.312285
2025-08-24 18.002877 22.340887 28.443139 38.338789 55.770861 90.711447 196.495227
2025-08-31 17.235023 21.469760 27.471071 37.305773 54.915371 91.204247 208.209982
2025-09-07 17.028030 21.391225 27.677159 38.224270 57.828252 100.967320 264.431140
2025-09-14 16.564813 20.918163 27.254605 38.046365 58.595407 105.853243 307.776606
2025-09-21 16.021315 20.304475 26.583042 37.387959 58.316122 108.011437 341.320105
2025-09-28 15.426502 19.593639 25.728764 36.354908 57.157278 107.570016 359.744663
2025-10-05 15.364660 19.666092 26.096814 37.492976 60.681571 121.337590 517.950468
2025-10-12 15.201071 19.577533 26.202073 38.164537 63.310142 133.689189 749.040974
2025-10-19 15.047300 19.495774 26.310977 38.847881 66.079600 147.959058 1209.947930
2025-10-26 14.752067 19.186155 26.031881 38.776683 67.064858 156.417921 1812.379383
2025-11-02 14.379521 18.745291 25.517537 38.219339 66.796434 159.976456 2471.324853
2025-11-09 13.993591 18.272695 24.933112 37.492134 66.027651 161.290981 3239.751764